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中國前駐伊朗大使美伊局勢緊張會對全球經濟帶來不利影響
2020-01-11 18:09  www.co-realestate.com

  【解说】近日,美军在伊拉克击杀伊朗高级将领苏莱曼尼引发连锁反应。当地时间1月8日,在代号“烈士苏莱曼尼”的行动中,伊朗向美国驻伊拉克的两个军事基地发射了十多枚弹道导弹以报复美国。北京时间1月9日凌晨,美国总统特朗普回应:“美国准备好拥抱和平、不会再作出直接的军事回应。”

[Explanations] Recently, the U.S. military in Iraq to kill Iran's top general Suleimani triggered a chain reaction. On January 8, Iran fired more than a dozen ballistic missiles at two U.S. military bases in Iraq in retaliation for the U.S. in an operation codenamed \"Martyrs Suleimani.\" \"The United States is ready to embrace peace and no more direct military response,\" U.S. President Donald Trump responded in the early hours of January 9, Beijing time.

  【解说】美方此举用意如何?中东局势紧张又将对世界经济和国际关系格局带来什么影响?1月9日,中国前驻伊朗大使华黎明在接受中新网记者专访时表示,美方暗杀伊朗指挥官苏莱曼尼蓄谋已久,却未料到此事会引发伊朗乃至全球如此强烈的反应。

[Explanation] What is the intention of the US side? What impact will tensions in the Middle East have on the world economy and the international relations landscape? On january 9th china's former ambassador to iran, hua liming, told chinanews.com in an interview that the u.s. assassination of iran's commander, sulaimani, had been a long time, but had not expected such a strong response from iran or the world.

  特朗普下令击杀他,就是美国要除掉在中东地区的一个敌人,除掉他的心腹之患。实际上你从联合国宪章从国际法的角度上,美国这是恐怖主义行为。他运用霸权他习惯了,但是我想美国绝对没有想到,会引起伊朗和中东地区这些人这么强烈的这个反应。我看特朗普有点后怕,所以呢很快就想缩回去。

Trump's order to kill him is for the United States to get rid of one of its enemies in the Middle East and remove his confidants. In fact, from the perspective of the Charter of the United Nations, the United States is a terrorist act. He's used to using hegemony, but I don't think the U. S. was expecting such a strong reaction from people like Iran and the Middle East. I think Trump is a little scared, so soon he'll want to shrink back.

  【解说】特朗普在怕什么?对此华黎明解释,事件发生后,全球的油价、金价立即呈上涨趋势,美国的经济随之受损,这是即将迎来大选的特朗普最不愿意看到的结果。

[Explanation] What is Trump afraid of? In response, Mr. Hua explained that the immediate upward trend in oil and gold prices in the wake of the events had hurt the US economy, the last thing Mr. Trump would like to see coming.

  中东这个石油拥有世界上石油的定价权,这次苏莱曼尼遇刺,油价马上最灵敏做出反应,涨到68美元一桶,黄金价格也上涨,美国的股市下跌。这个是美国不愿意看到,世界的油价一上涨,美国的经济就要受到损害。尤其是特朗普不愿意看到,这一公升的油油价涨了,特朗普的选票就没有了。

The oil in the Middle East, which has the right to price oil in the world, was the most sensitive response to the assassination of Suleimani, rising to $68 a barrel, rising gold and falling U.S. stocks. This is the reluctance of the United States to see the world's oil prices rise and its economy suffer. Trump, in particular, would not like to see this litre of oil rise and Trump's vote disappear.

  中国能源对于进口油的这个依赖度越来越高,而且其中60%来自中东。所以现在这个情况下,中东地区有风吹草动,中国的经济会马上受到影响。当然最直接的影响就是我们国内的油价也上涨。但这个仅仅是个表面的现象,如果真的就是油价上涨股市下跌,黄金价格要上涨,整个世界经济会走入一个衰退的状态。

China's energy is increasingly dependent on imported oil, and 60% of it comes from the Middle East. So now, in the middle east, china's economy will suffer. The immediate effect, of course, is that oil prices are also rising at home. But this is only a superficial phenomenon. If oil prices go up and stocks fall and gold prices go up, the world economy will go into a recession.

  【解说】对于中东地区局势未来的发展趋势,华黎明表示,美国和伊朗的矛盾已成为中东地区最大的矛盾,两国目前仍处于僵局之中。他认为,在未来很长时期,除非发生新的变化,否则中东地区的局势不会有太大的转变前景。

[Explanations] As for the future trend of the situation in the Middle East, Mr. Hua says the US-Iranian contradictions have become the biggest in the region and are still at an impasse. He believes that, for a long time to come, the situation in the Middle East will not be much changed unless new changes occur.