Among the market participants who gave the answer,11 were bullish, two were short and three were choosing to oscillate, according to a China Gold Network survey of domestic gold analysts and market figures.
According to friday's china gold poll,30% of readers think the price of gold will rise by more than $30 this week and 20% believe it will rise by more than $10 this week.
Cash prices closed in dollars, up%, in the week ended December 30. Spot gold rose last week after a number of iran commanders were hit by u.s. air strikes in iraq, ending the first week of the year 2020 with a changyang weekly, during which gold broke through an important $1550 resistance point.
The recent trend in gold prices may be highly relevant to developments in the U.S. and Iraq, and investors need to be highly concerned. On the data side, the overall US manufacturing PMI data released last week were weaker, with Markit manufacturing PMI and ISM manufacturing PMI lower than expected and before in December, indicating a weak recovery in the US manufacturing sector, which corresponded to the latest US request for higher-than-expected early-week unemployment benefits and a significantly lower-than-expected December Consumer Confidence Index. So it remains to be seen whether the job market will continue to be strong in the face of a sluggish manufacturing recovery and whether consumption will provide a long-term, inexhaustible stimulus to U.S. economic growth. But weaker overall economic data helped fuel short-term rapid gains in spot gold prices.
Technically, last week's spot gold weekly line closed out a big positive line, the index low hook upward, indicating that there is still some momentum to rise in the medium term, the daily line looks at the weekly gold price of more than $1520 and $1550 near two important resistance levels and there is no obvious step back during the period, the moving average system long and head up, the 5-day average of the price support is obvious. Shows a short - term offensive.
Taken together, the relatively weak u. s.economic data and the surge in risk aversion caused by regional conflicts have contributed to the rapid rise in gold prices, and the recent market nerves may be swayed by the u. s.-iranian situation, if the conflict continues to escalate gold prices may continue to pull up quickly, but in the overall consideration of the respective interests of the u. s. and iranians, individuals believe that the probability of a large-scale conflict, such as risk aversion to gold prices, or a subsequent decline.
Last week, geopolitical risks gave gold a strong boost at the start of the new year. U.S. air strikes on top Iranian generals are still simmering, tensions are growing in the Middle East, and news of escalating U.S.-Iranian clashes has spurred a sharp rise in gold prices, which has hit a four-way street.
Separately, the us ism manufacturing pmi hit a new low since 2009 in december, and manufacturing remains weak. In a December rate resolution, the Fed said manufacturing had become an important drag on the U.S. economy, and the minutes showed that the Fed would stand by for the foreseeable future.
This week a lot of us and european economic data were released, including friday's us nonfarm data. New jobs are forecast to fall to 160,000 in December, down from 10,000 in November. If economic data were to weaken, gold would still be supported. Furthermore, this week's focus will be on whether tensions in the US and Iraq will continue to escalate.
In the near term, the deterioration in the situation in the Middle East has increased demand for safe-haven assets, leading to a short-term trend in gold. in the medium to long term (i.e.,2020), it is expected to continue the good performance in 2019. The main reasons are as follows:
On the technical side, the current technical indicators although there are signs of overbought, but under the extremely strong form, should not short, it is recommended that investors continue to buy at a low price. On the specific operation, the previous weeks have been laid out the midline multi single, continue to hold, profit target $1625 first line; short line operation, this week focus on 1550\/$1535 support position.
Recently, international gold gained momentum as the dollar weakened against a basket of currencies, and as the yield on the 10-year Treasury note retreated, accelerating its gains after breaking through low volatile regions.
International gold prices remained wobbly as a whole for the week of december 30, spurred by an escalation of the geopolitical crisis in the middle east. Gold prices rose strongly on friday, hitting the $1553 line. The weekly line level to add a big positive line, the current weekly line level closed out of the four Lianyang market, the form to support the further rise in gold prices.
On the logic of the current rise in gold prices, while boosted by a weaker dollar and a fall in U.S. debt yields, international gold prices remained on an upward trend of high probability; on the other hand, the recent rapid rise in the geopolitical crisis in the Middle East has roiled global capital markets, sparked a sell-off in risky assets, and a rise in risk-averse sentiment has once again ignited an appetite for gold. International gold prices rose sharply as a result, and jumped sharply in early trading on monday, january 6th to hit a seven-year high of $1,588.
From the technical trend, the international gold price in August 2018 since the start of the rally, currently maintained in the upward structure. International gold prices hit a seven-year high today, suggesting that international gold, helped by the geopolitical crisis, will accelerate to the $1600 mark, with pressure on the $1610 region this week.
U.S. air strikes against senior Iranian generals in Baghdad in the early hours of Friday led to a renewed deterioration in U.S.-Iran relations and a sharp upward push on gold prices driven by risk aversion that could become a major driver of the gold rally until the risk is properly addressed.
There were three reasons for the display: last week's gold prices, triggered by tensions in the Middle East, rose through the dollar's pressure to close at the top of the dollar on Friday; the previous highs needed to be effectively breached; and the dollar index, which has been low for six months, had rebound demand.
Last week's biggest event was the u. s.air raid on iran's generals, a move that instantly triggered a sudden warming in the middle east, triggering a global risk-averse rise in gold prices, while iran's retaliation led to today's high asian opening, hitting $1588 and then retreating, although gold prices continued to rise, but after friday's explosion, the next few trading days are facing profit-taking back, with an upper focus on resistance of $1600 and a lower support of $1550.
This week, financial markets will focus on US non-farm payrolls in December, U.S. trade accounts, and service sector PMIs in major economies such as the eurozone, Germany and France, as well as China's December inflation and financial data.
Last week was the first trading week of 2020, when u.s. air strikes at iraq's iraqi airport in baghdad killed senior iranian military officers, inflamed tensions in geopolitics, a sharp rise in risk aversion and drove gold prices up. The \"us-iranian conflict\" has set the tone for the 2020 financial market, and gold prices will continue to rise.
Meanwhile, the Fed released the minutes of its December meeting in the early hours of Saturday morning, with the Fed still expressing confidence in the state of the economy and a wait-and-see attitude to monetary policy for 2020, after which expectations of a Fed rate cut in 2020 rose, but did not cause significant market volatility, with the evolution of the current geopolitical situation becoming the primary focus of the market, followed by global economic and trade friction, followed by the Fed's monetary policy. U.S. military action may normally be one-off, but the chances of an escalation of the U.S.-Iranian conflict remain high.
From last week's close, this week's rally will continue, with the market now widely seen as pointing to $1600, although sentiment will continue to spread, but the short-term price deviation from the average is already too high, and prices will accelerate in the course of the continued surge.
Fundamental: The escalation of the US-Iranian conflict has led to a sharp rise in gold prices. In response to last week's high level of tension in the Middle East and deteriorating U.S.-Iranian relations, Iran announced a halt to the Iran nuclear deal and no more restrictions on the number of centrifuges, a surge in international gold prices helped spark a surge in risk-averse markets that knocked through last year's $1,557($1,600) before the start of the market.
And the minutes of the Fed meeting in the early hours of Saturday morning reaffirmed that it would not cut interest rates for the time being, with some support for gold. Focusing on economic data such as ADP and non-farm payrolls this week, focusing on developments between the U.S. and Iraq, the chances of both sides coming out face to face are small, given the generally timely impact of geopolitical events, or if the event does not ferment further, there will be a risk-averse market departure, gold prices high fall back.
Technical aspect:the recent increase in gold price has been rapid, and it has continued to rise, and no effective callback has occurred due to the impact of the incident. At present, there are still technical callbacks with high indicators;Medium and long-term rising trend still exists. The lower support is$1560\/1535\/1500 and the upper pressure is$1580\/11600\/1660.
It's a bad start. The surge in risk aversion was the main driver of Friday's oil and gold price hikes, and a quiet week for New Year's holiday was shattered. Tensions in the Middle East have once again been overshadowed by the spotlight as the bombs have boomed. The depth and breadth of the impact of the event is uncertain and difficult to guess. The focus is at loggerheads, the fundamentals have given enough reason to be excited, and with the fed's attitude toward interest rates staying the same on friday, gold prices could continue to jump or hover high for some time.
Key points for attention are: the first non-farm week of the year, the u.s. job market is about to hand in its first new year's paper, and whether data such as employment will continue in december is worth looking forward to. It has to be said that, in the present case of the United States, there are not enough powerful opponents in the world to pose a real challenge to it, so when the risk-averse expectation is fulfilled, the high price of gold will inevitably be alleviated, which can be regarded as the time node for the layout.
The US manufacturing index fell to a 10-year low in December, putting the dollar under pressure, and differences of interest between the US and Iraq remained to be bridged until the US stopped imposing sanctions on Iran and avoided an Iranian anti-war attack to ease the overall situation, with gold bearing the brunt of the risk. To sum up, gold in the hustle and bustle of the market atmosphere, there may be further performance, waiting for adjustment before intervention. There is a long self-reinforcing process of gold price trend on the week line, the index overbuys the top to deviate from the operation, catch up or have the big risk. Lower gear support \/$40, upper gear pressure $1588\/75.
Fundamentally, geopolitical factors began to dominate the market, with a risk aversion explosion driving gold prices up more than $40, a weekly gain of%, at a new high since September 2019. At the same time, the minutes of the Fed's December meeting last week showed that most Fed officials thought the current level of interest rates was appropriate and expected them to remain low as long as economic activity matched the current economic outlook, which affected a weak dollar and was good for gold.
This week, markets will be highly focused on Iran's response, whether retaliatory action will escalate the conflict. If any, geopolitical risk factors will further shape the market, from which gold prices will continue to rise.
On the technical side, last week's international gold daily chart showed strong gold prices, and Friday's gold price was above the $1550 mark, more favorable for multi-party confidence. Gold prices are expected to continue to rise this week, with the first resistance level at $1560, followed by $1,600, and the support level at $1515, followed by an integer level of $1,500.
International gold prices surged above $1550 as tensions in the Middle East exploded on Friday. On the news side, uncertainty about the situation in the Middle East is likely to rise again as Iran retaliates. Because short-term and long-term trends are still in the long run, and the news will stimulate gold prices at any time, so in the trading strategy to do more.
The news continues and gold is expected to rise to close to $1600 this week, but the short-term gains are too large and will hit the bottom once the Middle East eases. This week's pressure is below $1600, holding around $1550.
Last week was a cross-annual week, on wednesday, during the new year's holiday in the west, but the gold market has soared, especially on friday when u.s. troops used drones to assassinate senior iranian generals, triggering a surge in crude oil and gold.
Spot gold closed strongly on friday after risk-averse demand, trading all the way higher after trading below $1550 but back again. Technically, the gold bullion on the daily chart has recently had an overall technical advantage, with gold holding steady above the $1550 mark cementing the rally on the daily chart and rising gold prices if geopolitical conflicts continue to ferment. Several Fed officials will speak this week, and the recess of the British parliament will be over, focusing on U.S. nonfarm data and geopolitical developments, and gold prices are expected to remain good this week.
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