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金牌分析师看金价看多观点占据绝对优势
2020-01-08 01:19  www.co-realestate.com

中国黄金网对国内黄金分析师和市场人士的观点调查显示,在给出答案的市场人士中,11人看涨,2人看空,3人选择振荡。

Among the market participants who gave the answer,11 were bullish, two were short and three were choosing to oscillate, according to a China Gold Network survey of domestic gold analysts and market figures.

据上周五中国黄金网读者投票显示,30%的读者认为本周金价将上涨30美元以上,20%的读者认为本周金价将上涨10美元以上。

According to friday's china gold poll,30% of readers think the price of gold will rise by more than $30 this week and 20% believe it will rise by more than $10 this week.

12月30日当周现货金价收报于美元,涨美元,涨幅为%。上周,受美国在伊拉克境内空袭多名伊朗指挥官影响,现货黄金价格涨势如虹,2020年度开年第一周即以一根长阳周线报收,期间金价曾一度突破了1550美元重要阻力点位。

Cash prices closed in dollars, up%, in the week ended December 30. Spot gold rose last week after a number of iran commanders were hit by u.s. air strikes in iraq, ending the first week of the year 2020 with a changyang weekly, during which gold broke through an important $1550 resistance point.

近期黄金价格的走势或将与美伊局势的发展高度契合,投资者需对此高度关注。数据方面,上周公布的美国制造业PMI数据整体偏弱,其中12月Markit制造业PMI和ISM制造业PMI均不及预期及前值,显示美国制造业复苏乏力,与制造业数据疲软对应的是美国最新的当周初请失业金人数高于市场预期以及12月谘商会消费者信心指数大幅低于预期。故此在制造业复苏乏力背景下就业市场能否持续强劲且消费能否为美国经济增长提供长期不竭动力仍有待进一步观察。但整体较弱的经济数据助推了现货黄金价格的短期快速上涨。

The recent trend in gold prices may be highly relevant to developments in the U.S. and Iraq, and investors need to be highly concerned. On the data side, the overall US manufacturing PMI data released last week were weaker, with Markit manufacturing PMI and ISM manufacturing PMI lower than expected and before in December, indicating a weak recovery in the US manufacturing sector, which corresponded to the latest US request for higher-than-expected early-week unemployment benefits and a significantly lower-than-expected December Consumer Confidence Index. So it remains to be seen whether the job market will continue to be strong in the face of a sluggish manufacturing recovery and whether consumption will provide a long-term, inexhaustible stimulus to U.S. economic growth. But weaker overall economic data helped fuel short-term rapid gains in spot gold prices.

技术上看,上周现货金价周线收出一根大阳线,指标低位勾头向上,显示中期仍有一定的上涨动能,日线看上周金价连续突破1520美元及1550美元附近两道重要阻力位且期间并无明显回踩动作,均线系统多头排列且齐头向上,5日均线对价格支撑作用明显。显示短期多头攻势凌厉。

Technically, last week's spot gold weekly line closed out a big positive line, the index low hook upward, indicating that there is still some momentum to rise in the medium term, the daily line looks at the weekly gold price of more than $1520 and $1550 near two important resistance levels and there is no obvious step back during the period, the moving average system long and head up, the 5-day average of the price support is obvious. Shows a short - term offensive.

综合来看,相对较弱的美国经济数据以及由于地区冲突引发的避险情绪激增共同导致了此轮黄金价格的高位快速拉升,近期市场神经或将受美伊局势左右,若冲突持续升级黄金价格或将延续快速拉涨格局,但出于对美伊双方各自利益的整体考量,个人认为爆发大规模冲突的概率不大,如避险情绪能够快速消退金价或将随之出现一轮下跌。

Taken together, the relatively weak u. s.economic data and the surge in risk aversion caused by regional conflicts have contributed to the rapid rise in gold prices, and the recent market nerves may be swayed by the u. s.-iranian situation, if the conflict continues to escalate gold prices may continue to pull up quickly, but in the overall consideration of the respective interests of the u. s. and iranians, individuals believe that the probability of a large-scale conflict, such as risk aversion to gold prices, or a subsequent decline.

上周,地缘政治风险为黄金在新年伊始带来强劲动力。美军空袭伊朗高级将领事件仍在发酵,中东局势越趋紧张,美伊冲突升级的消息刺激金价大幅拉升,黄金录得周线四连阳。

Last week, geopolitical risks gave gold a strong boost at the start of the new year. U.S. air strikes on top Iranian generals are still simmering, tensions are growing in the Middle East, and news of escalating U.S.-Iranian clashes has spurred a sharp rise in gold prices, which has hit a four-way street.

另外,美国12月ism制造业PMI创下2009年以来新低,制造业依旧疲软。12月利率决议上,美联储表示制造业成为了拖累美国经济的一个重要因素,会议纪要显示,在可预见的未来,美联储将按兵不动。

Separately, the us ism manufacturing pmi hit a new low since 2009 in december, and manufacturing remains weak. In a December rate resolution, the Fed said manufacturing had become an important drag on the U.S. economy, and the minutes showed that the Fed would stand by for the foreseeable future.

本周有大量的美欧经济数据公布,包括周五的美国非农数据。预测显示,12月份新增就业岗位将从11月的万个降至16万个。如果经济数据走弱,金价仍将受到支撑。此外,本周市场焦点,仍会密切关注美伊紧张局势是否会继续升级。

This week a lot of us and european economic data were released, including friday's us nonfarm data. New jobs are forecast to fall to 160,000 in December, down from 10,000 in November. If economic data were to weaken, gold would still be supported. Furthermore, this week's focus will be on whether tensions in the US and Iraq will continue to escalate.

近期来看,中东局势的恶化,使投资者对避险资产需求增加,主导了黄金短期走势。从中长期来看(即2020年),预计仍将延续2019年优良表现。主要理由如下:

In the near term, the deterioration in the situation in the Middle East has increased demand for safe-haven assets, leading to a short-term trend in gold. in the medium to long term (i.e.,2020), it is expected to continue the good performance in 2019. The main reasons are as follows:

技术方面来看,当前的技术指标虽有超买迹象,但在极度强势的形态之下,不宜做空,建议投资者仍继续逢低买入。具体操作上,之前几周已布局的中线多单,继续持有,获利目标1625美元一线;短线操作,本周关注1550/1535美元支持位置。

On the technical side, the current technical indicators although there are signs of overbought, but under the extremely strong form, should not short, it is recommended that investors continue to buy at a low price. On the specific operation, the previous weeks have been laid out the midline multi single, continue to hold, profit target $1625 first line; short line operation, this week focus on 1550\/$1535 support position.

近期随着美元对一揽子货币走弱,以及美国十年期国债收益率回落修正,国际金价获得上涨动力,并在突破了低位震荡区域后加速走高。

Recently, international gold gained momentum as the dollar weakened against a basket of currencies, and as the yield on the 10-year Treasury note retreated, accelerating its gains after breaking through low volatile regions.

12月30日当周国际金价整体保持振荡上行,受到中东地缘政治危机升级刺激上周五金价强势拉升,一度触及1553美元一线。周线级别再添一根大阳线,目前周线级别收出四连阳行情,形态上支持金价进一步上涨。

International gold prices remained wobbly as a whole for the week of december 30, spurred by an escalation of the geopolitical crisis in the middle east. Gold prices rose strongly on friday, hitting the $1553 line. The weekly line level to add a big positive line, the current weekly line level closed out of the four Lianyang market, the form to support the further rise in gold prices.

从目前金价上涨的逻辑来看,一面受到美元走弱以及美债收益率回落提振,国际金价继续保持上行态势为大概率事件;另一方面,近日中东地缘政治危机迅速升温,搅动全球资本市场,风险资产遭遇抛售,市场风险情绪抬头再一次点燃了避险资金对黄金的青睐。国际金价受此影响出现了快速上涨行情,并在北京时间1月6日(周一)早盘大幅跳空高开高走,最高触及1588美元一线,创新7年以来的新高。

On the logic of the current rise in gold prices, while boosted by a weaker dollar and a fall in U.S. debt yields, international gold prices remained on an upward trend of high probability; on the other hand, the recent rapid rise in the geopolitical crisis in the Middle East has roiled global capital markets, sparked a sell-off in risky assets, and a rise in risk-averse sentiment has once again ignited an appetite for gold. International gold prices rose sharply as a result, and jumped sharply in early trading on monday, january 6th to hit a seven-year high of $1,588.

从技术走势来看,国际金价于2018年8月启动上涨行情以来,目前维持在上行结构当中。今日国际金价创下7年以来高点,说明在地缘政治危机的助推之下国际金价将加速上攻1600美元关口,上方压力本周关注1610美元区域。

From the technical trend, the international gold price in August 2018 since the start of the rally, currently maintained in the upward structure. International gold prices hit a seven-year high today, suggesting that international gold, helped by the geopolitical crisis, will accelerate to the $1600 mark, with pressure on the $1610 region this week.

美国上周五凌晨在伊拉克巴格达空袭伊朗高级将领,导致美伊关系再度恶化,市场避险推动金价大幅度上行,当下这个风险事件没有得到妥善处理之前,避险会成为当下黄金上涨的主要推动力。

U.S. air strikes against senior Iranian generals in Baghdad in the early hours of Friday led to a renewed deterioration in U.S.-Iran relations and a sharp upward push on gold prices driven by risk aversion that could become a major driver of the gold rally until the risk is properly addressed.

盘面显示原因有三:一是上周金价因中东局势紧张引发避险买需,周五升穿美元压力位,以美元高位收盘;二是前期高点美元尚需得到有效突破;三是美元指数已达半年来低位,有反弹需求。

There were three reasons for the display: last week's gold prices, triggered by tensions in the Middle East, rose through the dollar's pressure to close at the top of the dollar on Friday; the previous highs needed to be effectively breached; and the dollar index, which has been low for six months, had rebound demand.

上周最大的事情恐怕就是美国空袭伊朗将军事件了,美国的这一举动,瞬间导致中东局势骤然升温,引爆全球避险,金价上涨,与此同时伊朗的报复行动导致今日亚盘开盘高开高走,冲击1588美元一带后有所收敛,虽然金价持续大涨,但在周五爆发大涨之后,未来几个交易日金价面临获利了结盘的压制而回落,上方关注阻力1600美元,下方支撑关注1550美元。

Last week's biggest event was the u. s.air raid on iran's generals, a move that instantly triggered a sudden warming in the middle east, triggering a global risk-averse rise in gold prices, while iran's retaliation led to today's high asian opening, hitting $1588 and then retreating, although gold prices continued to rise, but after friday's explosion, the next few trading days are facing profit-taking back, with an upper focus on resistance of $1600 and a lower support of $1550.

本周,金融市场将聚焦于美国12月的非农就业报告,美国贸易帐,以及欧元区、德国、法国等主要经济体服务业PMI,中国方面将公布12月通胀数据、金融数据也将是关注重点。

This week, financial markets will focus on US non-farm payrolls in December, U.S. trade accounts, and service sector PMIs in major economies such as the eurozone, Germany and France, as well as China's December inflation and financial data.

上周是2020年第一个交易周,美国在伊拉克巴格达机场发动空袭,致伊朗高级军官遇难,激化紧张的地缘政治局势,避险情绪急剧升温,推动金价上涨,“美伊冲突”已经为2020的金融市场定下基调,金价将延续上升趋势。

Last week was the first trading week of 2020, when u.s. air strikes at iraq's iraqi airport in baghdad killed senior iranian military officers, inflamed tensions in geopolitics, a sharp rise in risk aversion and drove gold prices up. The \"us-iranian conflict\" has set the tone for the 2020 financial market, and gold prices will continue to rise.

与此同时,美联储在上周六凌晨公布了12月会议纪要,美联储依然表达了对经济状况的信心,以及对2020年货币政策观望态度,纪要后市场对美联储2020年降息一次的预期有所上升,但并未引起市场明显波动,当前地缘政治局势的演化成为市场首要关注焦点,其次是全球经贸摩擦,然后再是美联储货币政策。通常情况下美国的军事行动可能是一次性的,但此次行动导致美伊冲突升级的可能性依然非常高。

Meanwhile, the Fed released the minutes of its December meeting in the early hours of Saturday morning, with the Fed still expressing confidence in the state of the economy and a wait-and-see attitude to monetary policy for 2020, after which expectations of a Fed rate cut in 2020 rose, but did not cause significant market volatility, with the evolution of the current geopolitical situation becoming the primary focus of the market, followed by global economic and trade friction, followed by the Fed's monetary policy. U.S. military action may normally be one-off, but the chances of an escalation of the U.S.-Iranian conflict remain high.

从上周收盘来看,本周金价升势仍将有所延续,目前市场普遍看向金价指向1600美元,虽然市场情绪仍将蔓延,但是短期内价格偏离均值水平已经过高,并且价格在持续冲高过程中会加速波动。

From last week's close, this week's rally will continue, with the market now widely seen as pointing to $1600, although sentiment will continue to spread, but the short-term price deviation from the average is already too high, and prices will accelerate in the course of the continued surge.

基本面:美伊冲突升级加剧,金价获益上涨凌厉。上周因美军精准袭击,造成多名伊朗高官身亡,袭击事件引发了中东地区局势高度紧张,美伊关系极度恶化,伊朗宣布中止履行伊核协议,不再限制离心机数量等回应,市场避险情绪爆发,助推国际金价大幅上涨,今日开盘后顺利击穿去年前高1557美元,逼近1600美元整数位置。

Fundamental: The escalation of the US-Iranian conflict has led to a sharp rise in gold prices. In response to last week's high level of tension in the Middle East and deteriorating U.S.-Iranian relations, Iran announced a halt to the Iran nuclear deal and no more restrictions on the number of centrifuges, a surge in international gold prices helped spark a surge in risk-averse markets that knocked through last year's $1,557($1,600) before the start of the market.

而上周六凌晨的美联储会议纪要重申暂不会降息,对于金价有一定支撑。本周关注ADP、非农等经济数据,重点关注美伊之间事态进展,预计双方出兵直面开战的概率较小,鉴于地缘政治事件影响一般具有时效性,若事件未能进一步发酵则或将出现避险买盘离场,金价高位回落的情况。

And the minutes of the Fed meeting in the early hours of Saturday morning reaffirmed that it would not cut interest rates for the time being, with some support for gold. Focusing on economic data such as ADP and non-farm payrolls this week, focusing on developments between the U.S. and Iraq, the chances of both sides coming out face to face are small, given the generally timely impact of geopolitical events, or if the event does not ferment further, there will be a risk-averse market departure, gold prices high fall back.

技术面:近期金价涨势迅猛,持续拉高,受事件影响,并未出现有效回调。目前,指标高位,仍有技术性回调需求;中长期上涨趋势依旧存在。下方支撑1560/1535/1500美元,上方压力1580/11600/1660美元。

Technical aspect:the recent increase in gold price has been rapid, and it has continued to rise, and no effective callback has occurred due to the impact of the incident. At present, there are still technical callbacks with high indicators;Medium and long-term rising trend still exists. The lower support is$1560\/1535\/1500 and the upper pressure is$1580\/11600\/1660.

开年不太平。避险情绪的聚集正是推动上周五油价、金价攀升的主要推手,新年假期祥和平淡的一周就这样被打破。随着炸弹的巨响,中东地区紧张局势再次被聚光灯笼罩。事件影响的深度与广度依扑朔迷离,难以猜测。焦点双发剑拔弩张,基本面已经给足了可以造成盘面兴奋的理由,加之上周五美联储对利率维持不变的态度,金价可能继续上冲或高位徘徊一段时间。

It's a bad start. The surge in risk aversion was the main driver of Friday's oil and gold price hikes, and a quiet week for New Year's holiday was shattered. Tensions in the Middle East have once again been overshadowed by the spotlight as the bombs have boomed. The depth and breadth of the impact of the event is uncertain and difficult to guess. The focus is at loggerheads, the fundamentals have given enough reason to be excited, and with the fed's attitude toward interest rates staying the same on friday, gold prices could continue to jump or hover high for some time.

需要关注的要点有:年内首个非农周,美国就业市场即将上交首份新年答卷,就业等数据能否继续延续12月表现值得期待。不得不提的是,以美国目前的情况,世界上没有足够强大的对手能对其形成真正意义上的挑战,所以避险预期兑现之时,金价高温也将不可避免的有所缓解,届时可视作谋篇布局的时间节点。

Key points for attention are: the first non-farm week of the year, the u.s. job market is about to hand in its first new year's paper, and whether data such as employment will continue in december is worth looking forward to. It has to be said that, in the present case of the United States, there are not enough powerful opponents in the world to pose a real challenge to it, so when the risk-averse expectation is fulfilled, the high price of gold will inevitably be alleviated, which can be regarded as the time node for the layout.

12月美国制造业指数降至十年最低令美元承压,同时美伊间的利益分歧有待弥合,除非美国停止制裁伊朗,避免伊朗反戈一击,方能缓和整体局势,黄金避险首当其冲。综述,黄金在喧嚣的市场氛围中,可能还有进一步表现,等待调整后再做介入。周线上看金价趋势存在多头自我强化的过程,指标超买顶背离运行,追高或存在较大风险。下档支撑/40美元,上档压力1588/75美元。

The US manufacturing index fell to a 10-year low in December, putting the dollar under pressure, and differences of interest between the US and Iraq remained to be bridged until the US stopped imposing sanctions on Iran and avoided an Iranian anti-war attack to ease the overall situation, with gold bearing the brunt of the risk. To sum up, gold in the hustle and bustle of the market atmosphere, there may be further performance, waiting for adjustment before intervention. There is a long self-reinforcing process of gold price trend on the week line, the index overbuys the top to deviate from the operation, catch up or have the big risk. Lower gear support \/$40, upper gear pressure $1588\/75.

基本面上,地缘政治因素开始主导市场,避险情绪爆发推动金价大涨超过40美元,刷新2019年9月以来新高,周涨幅为%。同时上周公布的美联储12月议息会议纪要显示,美联储多数官员认为目前的利率水平适当,并预计只要经济活动与经济前景与目前相当,利率将维持在低位水平,受此影响美元表现疲软,对黄金来说则是利好。

Fundamentally, geopolitical factors began to dominate the market, with a risk aversion explosion driving gold prices up more than $40, a weekly gain of%, at a new high since September 2019. At the same time, the minutes of the Fed's December meeting last week showed that most Fed officials thought the current level of interest rates was appropriate and expected them to remain low as long as economic activity matched the current economic outlook, which affected a weak dollar and was good for gold.

本周,市场将高度关注伊朗做出的反应,是否展开报复行动而使伊美冲突升级。如果有的话,地缘政治风险因素将进一步左右市场,金价将从中受益继续上涨。

This week, markets will be highly focused on Iran's response, whether retaliatory action will escalate the conflict. If any, geopolitical risk factors will further shape the market, from which gold prices will continue to rise.

技术面上,上周国际金价日线图显示金价走势强劲,且上周五金价持稳于1550美元关口上方,对多方信心更为有利。本周预计金价将继续上扬,首个阻力位在1560美元,其次是1600美元;支撑位重点关注下方1515美元,其次1500美元整数关口。

On the technical side, last week's international gold daily chart showed strong gold prices, and Friday's gold price was above the $1550 mark, more favorable for multi-party confidence. Gold prices are expected to continue to rise this week, with the first resistance level at $1560, followed by $1,600, and the support level at $1515, followed by an integer level of $1,500.

上周五中东局势紧张,引爆市场,国际金价大幅拉升至1550美元上方。从消息面看,中东局势仍存在不确定因素,可能会随着伊朗的报复行动再次升温。因短期和中长期趋势依然处在多头,且消息面随时会刺激金价上涨,所以在交易策略上要以逢低做多为主。

International gold prices surged above $1550 as tensions in the Middle East exploded on Friday. On the news side, uncertainty about the situation in the Middle East is likely to rise again as Iran retaliates. Because short-term and long-term trends are still in the long run, and the news will stimulate gold prices at any time, so in the trading strategy to do more.

消息面持续发酵,本周金价有望升至1600美元附近,但短期上涨幅度过大,一旦中东局势出现缓和就会出现冲高回落行情。本周压力在1600美元下方,支撑在1550美元附近。

The news continues and gold is expected to rise to close to $1600 this week, but the short-term gains are too large and will hit the bottom once the Middle East eases. This week's pressure is below $1600, holding around $1550.

上周为跨年度周,周三正值元旦假期,虽然西方国家尚处于新年长假中,但是黄金市场却呈现暴涨,尤其是上周五美军使用无人机刺杀伊朗高级将领,引发市场上原油和黄金的大涨。

Last week was a cross-annual week, on wednesday, during the new year's holiday in the west, but the gold market has soared, especially on friday when u.s. troops used drones to assassinate senior iranian generals, triggering a surge in crude oil and gold.

本周市场密切关注伊朗后续的反应和报复举措,避险情绪继续主导市场,但随着市场机构的交易员逐步回归岗位,资金流向尚待进一步观察。数据方面本周将公布美国12月份非农就业报告和中国的通胀数据,待市场从地缘政治的紧张情绪中消退后将逐步转向经济基本面和中美贸易协定的进展上来。黄金在短短的两周假期中已经积累了较大的无量涨幅,追高风险极大,建议保持观望为佳。

现货黄金上周五受到避险需求的影响强势收涨,金价开盘后一路走高,上破1550美元之后小幅回落但之后再度反弹。从技术上看,日线图上的黄金多头近期拥有整体的技术优势,金价持稳在1550美元关口上方巩固了日线图上的涨势,若地缘政治冲突继续发酵,金价会继续攀升。本周多位美联储官员将发表讲话,英国议会休会也将结束,重点关注美国非农数据和地缘政治的发展,预计金价本周仍有良好表现。

Spot gold closed strongly on friday after risk-averse demand, trading all the way higher after trading below $1550 but back again. Technically, the gold bullion on the daily chart has recently had an overall technical advantage, with gold holding steady above the $1550 mark cementing the rally on the daily chart and rising gold prices if geopolitical conflicts continue to ferment. Several Fed officials will speak this week, and the recess of the British parliament will be over, focusing on U.S. nonfarm data and geopolitical developments, and gold prices are expected to remain good this week.

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